Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.585918 2.076466 2.731453 3.690323 5.093713e+00 7.131410e+00 10.429360
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.035047 1.530794 2.305618 3.668815 6.156547e+00 1.084717e+01 21.368734
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.793156 1.306430 2.232698 4.181541 8.664570e+00 2.008672e+01 59.407004
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.616239 1.113555 2.133110 4.672049 1.206472e+01 3.854568e+01 200.445667
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.496706 0.976563 2.085283 5.349513 1.759958e+01 8.406492e+01 1075.215787
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.403341 0.853922 2.013574 6.019092 2.558405e+01 2.007112e+02 12873.276034
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.311237 0.695084 1.764955 5.947731 3.143983e+01 4.052484e+02 491126.275635
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.239375 0.557251 1.500928 5.585922 3.583546e+01 7.738011e+02 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.198520 0.484651 1.398923 5.876386 4.860913e+01 2.393809e+03 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.174729 0.449972 1.406870 6.841297 7.933521e+01 1.766035e+04 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.157967 0.429408 1.459273 8.334116 1.466934e+02 1.003875e+06 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.137791 0.389794 1.410915 9.155589 2.340816e+02 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.114416 0.332842 1.260351 8.990848 3.120912e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.094457 0.280580 1.099408 8.443202 3.794630e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.083872 0.258244 1.074197 9.425762 7.126093e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.074472 0.236712 1.039284 10.339368 1.380027e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.067274 0.221015 1.027465 11.740290 3.304213e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.060769 0.205607 1.006806 13.117390 8.811847e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.052778 0.181042 0.908567 12.619048 1.404038e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.045435 0.157006 0.798474 11.486008 1.735898e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.040983 0.144327 0.759624 11.985734 4.625283e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.038410 0.139196 0.772292 14.119379 4.615533e+05 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.036594 0.136928 0.806747 17.588477 2.878693e+08 NaN NaN